Революция разума: на подступах к Сингулярности. Как технологии изменят общество и сознание - Рэймонд Курцвейл Страница 104

“The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548; University of Groningen and University of California, Davis, “Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States”; Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar, and Marcel P. Timmer, PWT 9.1: Penn World Table Version 9.1, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, September 26, 2019, https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt; Robert C. Feenstra, Robert Inklaar, and Marcel P. Timmer, “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table”, American Economic Review 105, no. 10 (October 2015): 3150–82, http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130954; “Kurzarbeit: Germany’s Short-Time Work Benefit”, International Monetary Fund, June 15, 2020, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/06/11/na061120-kurzarbeit-germanys-short-time-work-benefit.

151. Подробнее о происходящих переменах и их вероятных долгосрочных последствиях: Rani Molla, “Office Work Will Never Be the Same”, Vox, May 21, 2020, https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/5/21/21234242/coronavirus-covid-19-remote-work-from-home-office-reopening; Gil Press, “The Future of Work Post-Covid-19”, Forbes, July 15, 2020, https://www.forbes.com/sites/gilpress/2020/07/15/the-future-of-work-post-covid-19/#3c9ea15e4baf; Nick Routley, “6 Charts That Show What Employers and Employees Really Think About Remote Working”, World Economic Forum, June 3, 2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06 /coronavirus-covid19-remote-working-office-employees-employers; Matthew Dey et al., “Ability to Work from Home: Evidence from Two Surveys and Implications for the Labor Market in the COVID-19 Pandemic”, Monthly Labor Review (US Bureau of Labor Statistics), June 2020, https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2020.14.

152. Huberman and Minns, “The Times They Are Not Changin’”, 548; University of Groningen and University of California, Davis, “Average Annual Hours Worked by Persons Engaged for United States”; Feenstra, Inklaar, and Timmer, “The Next Generation of the Penn World Table”, 3150–82; OECD Statistics, “Average Annual Hours Actually Worked per Worker”, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, retrieved October 22, 2021, https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=ANHRS.

153. International Labour Office, Marking Progress Against Child Labour: Global Estimates and Trends 2000–2012 (Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization, 2013), 16, http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@ed_norm/@ipec/documents/publication /wcms_221513.pdf.

154. International Labour Office, Marking Progress Against Child Labour, 3; International Labour Office, Global Estimates of Child Labour: Results and Trends, 2012–2016 (Geneva, Switzerland: International Labour Organization, 2017), 9, http://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups /public/-dgreports/-dcomm/documents/publication/wcms_575499.pdf; International Labour Office and United Nations Children’s Fund, Child Labour: Global Estimates 2020, Trends and the Road Forward (Geneva, Switzerland: ILO and UNICEF, 2021), 23, https:// www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/-ed_norm/-ipec/documents/publication/wcms_797515.pdf; US Department of Labor, 2021 Findings on the Worst Forms of Child Labor (Washington, DC: US Department of Labor, 2022), https://www.dol.gov/sites/dolgov/files/ILAB/child_labor_reports/tda2021/2021_TDA_Big_Book.pdf.

155. International Labour Office, Marking Progress Against Child Labour, 3; International Labour Office, Global Estimates of Child Labour: Results and Trends, 2012–2016, 9; International Labour Office and United Nations Children’s Fund, Child Labour: Global Estimates 2020, Trends and the Road Forward, 23, 82.

156. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, Global Study on Homicide: Executive Summary (Vienna: United Nations, July 2019), 26–28, https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/gsh/Booklet1.pdf.

157. В 1325 году в Англии на 100 000 человек приходилось 21,4 убийства в год. К 1575 году этот показатель снизился до 5,2, к 1675 году – до 3,5, а к 1862 году – до 1,6 и с тех пор остается ниже этого уровня. В Италии этот показатель составлял 71,7 в 1375 году, 7,0 в 1862 году и 0,9 в 2010 году. См. Max Roser and Hannah Ritchie, “Homicides”, Our World in Data, December 2019, https://ourworldindata.org/homicides; Manuel Eisner, “From Swords to Words: Does Macro-Level Change in Self-Control Predict Long-Term Variation in Levels of Homicide?”, Crime and Justice 43, no. 1 (September 2014): 80–81, https://doi.org/10.1086/677662; UN Office on Drugs and Crime, “Intentional Homicides (per 100,000 People) – France, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, United Kingdom, Spain”, retrieved from Worldbank.org, accessed March 25, 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/VC.IHR.PSRC.P5?end=2020&locations= FR-NL-SE-DE-CH-IT-GB-ES&start=2020&view=bar; “Appendix Tables: Homicide in England and Wales”, UK Office for National Statistics, February 9, 2023, https://www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/datasets/appendixtables homicideinenglandandwales/current/homicideyemarch22appendixtables.xlsx.

158. Этот график в основном строится на массиве данных под названием «Статистика убийств в Западной Европе с 1250 по 2017 год» проекта «Наш мир в данных». Однако в последней версии этого датасета период с 1950-го построен на информации от Всемирной организации здравоохранения, собранной в медицинских целях и существенно недооценивающей уровень убийств по сравнению со статистикой правоохранительной системы. Поэтому данные ВОЗ сложно напрямую сравнивать с информацией за прошлые периоды, в основном полученной из архивных исследований Эйснера (2014). Вместо этого за период с 1990-го использована информация из базы данных по международному статистическому учету убийств, созданной Управлением ООН. В период 2019–2021 гг. отчетный год в Великобритании начинался с апреля и заканчивался в марте, поэтому были вычислены взвешенные средние, чтобы сопоставить информацию за эти годы с данными за все остальные периоды, собиравшимися с января по декабрь. См. Roser and Ritchie, “Homicides”; Eisner, “From Swords to Words”, 80–81; UN Office on Drugs and Crime, “Intentional Homicides (per 100,000 People) – France, Netherlands, Sweden, Germany, Switzerland, Italy, United Kingdom, Spain”; “Appendix Tables: Homicide in England and Wales”, UK Office for National Statistics.

159. Alexia Cooper and Erica L. Smith, Homicide Trends in the United States, 1980–2008 (Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, November 2011), 2, https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/htus8008.pdf; “Crime in the United States: By Volume and Rate per 100,000 Inhabitants, 1999–2018”, Federal Bureau of Investigation, accessed April 28, 2023, https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018 /topic-pages/tables/table-1; Federal Bureau of Investigation, “Crime Data Explorer: Expanded Homicide Offense Counts in the United States”, US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation, accessed April 28, 2023, https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/LATEST /webapp/#/pages/explorer/crime/shr; Emily J. Hanson, “Violent Crime Trends, 1990–2021”, Congressional Research Service report IF12281, December 12, 2022, https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/IF12281.pdf; US Bureau of Economic Analysis, “Population (B230R-C0A052NBEA)”.

160. Подробнее о влиянии сухого закона на уровень преступности и насилия в США: “How Prohibition Created the Mafia”, History, YouTube video, February 21, 2019, https://www.you tube.com/watch?v=N-K60XXaPKw; Dave Roos, “How Prohibition Put the ‘Organized’ in Organized Crime”, History.com, February 22, 2019, https://www.history.com/news/prohibition-organized-crime-al-capone; Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Key Facts at a Glance: Homicide Rate Trends”, US Department of Justice, accessed September 29, 2006, https:// web.archive.org/web/20060929061431/http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/tables/hmrt tab.htm.

161. Подробнее о борьбе с наркотиками в США и ее влиянии на уровень насилия: “Why The War on Drugs Is a Huge Failure”, Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell, YouTube video, March 1, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v= wJUXLqNHCaI; German Lopez, “The War on Drugs, Explained”, Vox, May 8, 2016, https://www.vox.com/2016/5/8/18089368/war-on-drugs-marijuana-cocaine-heroin-meth; PBS, “Thirty Years of America’s Drug War: A Chronology”, Frontline, accessed April 28, 2023, https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/drugs/cron; Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Key Facts at a Glance: Homicide Rate Trends”.

162. Подробнее о теории разбитых окон и профилактике преступлений: George L. Kelling and James Q. Wilson, “Broken Windows: The Police and Neighborhood Safety”, Atlantic, March 1982, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1982/03/broken-windows /304465/?single_page=true; “Broken Windows Policing”, Center for Evidence-Based